Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.528961 23.531952 25.764079 28.462457 31.673141 35.420475 40.201523
2025-01-05 18.563946 21.169136 24.300069 28.434509 33.908025 41.164777 52.029760
2025-01-12 16.338443 19.171549 22.759588 27.815995 35.099263 45.878165 64.730454
2025-01-19 15.382598 18.540809 22.747115 29.076982 39.060763 55.872034 92.084837
2025-01-26 14.184767 17.401128 21.831829 28.812223 40.586351 62.580422 120.087777
2025-02-02 13.330167 16.608300 21.262148 28.910924 42.677776 71.334266 166.193847
2025-02-09 12.666609 15.999728 20.861266 29.170209 45.095234 82.222441 248.016872
2025-02-16 12.063921 15.412748 20.409122 29.241111 47.151741 93.773070 395.427006
2025-02-23 11.450597 14.753610 19.766299 28.859554 48.148358 103.327757 648.991396
2025-03-02 10.994738 14.291464 19.384712 28.883283 50.058444 117.827972 1572.496542
2025-03-09 10.544198 13.802684 18.909851 28.653332 51.310195 131.672972 8881.586425
2025-03-16 10.127703 13.337789 18.432022 28.346464 52.294976 146.142864 NaN
2025-03-23 9.748842 12.914440 17.999510 28.093770 53.441136 164.266732 NaN
2025-03-30 9.414022 12.541349 17.624232 27.911406 54.771691 187.138576 NaN
2025-04-06 9.033251 12.074576 17.052549 27.246279 54.514321 200.032142 NaN
2025-04-13 8.955360 12.088880 17.325256 28.432425 60.464619 287.025369 NaN
2025-04-20 8.679324 11.764459 16.965112 28.163978 61.559181 335.024694 NaN
2025-04-27 8.471077 11.540813 16.772040 28.252994 64.007258 427.628555 NaN
2025-05-04 8.297066 11.364718 16.653082 28.499721 67.218256 593.388964 NaN
2025-05-11 8.112564 11.161762 16.469228 28.566714 69.810295 838.518461 NaN
2025-05-18 7.889216 10.883416 16.125305 28.199279 70.453504 1071.368038 NaN
2025-05-25 7.723737 10.696486 15.944823 28.221875 72.915293 1758.713858 NaN
2025-06-01 7.541207 10.472932 15.680500 28.000597 74.196342 2924.146920 NaN